#commericalrealestate

TenantSee Weekly: Buy Services, Not Fear

TenantSee Weekly:  Buy Services, Not Fear

Fear sells.  But that doesn’t mean you should buy it.  So called “tenant only” firms sell the idea that they, alone, offer tenants conflict-free advisory.  To be clear, the potential for conflict does exist in commercial real estate advisory (more on that later).  Yes, as a consumer of such services, it’s important to be aware of how conflict can manifest.  However, the conflict narrative being peddled by the tenant only firms is more myth than reality.  It’s a clever sleight of hand, designed to distract the consumer from realizing the big gaps in knowledge that limit the tenant only firm’s ability to properly advise, while simultaneously suggesting great risk in hiring a full-service competitor.

TenantSee Weekly: How a Building Sale Affects Lease Negotiations

TenantSee Weekly:  How a Building Sale Affects Lease Negotiations

The pace of investment sale activity in San Francisco is accelerating.  This is the “Great Reset” about which we’ve written.  It’s driven by capital partners (equity/lenders) deciding there is no viable pathway to own their way to an exit and choosing to sell (usually at a steep discount to what they paid and/or the value of the debt).  Ultimately, these capital stack resets are healthy as they activate the asset, enabling new capital partners to transact at market.

TenantSee Weekly: Leverage

TenantSee Weekly:  Leverage

The concept is simple.  It’s the thing you use to make the deal better.  But in real estate negotiations, the extent of a tenant’s leverage and how best to exercise it, is less than obvious.

TenantSee Weekly: Men's Fashion - A Random Commentary

TenantSee Weekly:  Men's Fashion - A Random Commentary

In the 1990s, my pants fit more loosely.  They were often pleated.  Then, seemingly overnight, loose fitting, pleated pants were out of fashion.  To be fashionable required an entirely new product, a new look.  My now out of fashion, yet still perfectly serviceable, pleated trousers were initially (optimistically?) relegated to the back of the closet, ultimately to be unceremoniously delivered to Goodwill. 

TenantSee Weekly: No Free Lunch

TenantSee Weekly:  No Free Lunch

The office product offering is shifting to provide an array of hospitality-inspired experiences that, in some cases, rival those of a 5-Star hotel.  San Francisco landlords have lagged other markets in providing such high-end amenities because in the 2 decades prior to the pandemic, the supply/demand dynamic favored landlords, making it easier to lease space  (e.g., they didn’t have to).  For the past several years, however, San Francisco landlords have begun to spend millions on targeted amenities.  The typical playbook calls for some combination of health/fitness, conferencing and events, club/lounge/bar spaces, and specialty spaces, like golf simulator rooms and podcasting studios.

TenantSee Weekly: I Was Told We'd Be Discussing the Office...

TenantSee Weekly: I Was Told We'd Be Discussing the Office...

AI has summarized capitalism for me as follows:

“…an economic system where private individuals and corporations own and control the means of production, such as property, businesses, and industries. In capitalism, the core principles are profit motive, private property, and market competition. The government's role is limited to taxation and standard regulatory laws, and individuals are given the freedom to operate their businesses and manage their income as they choose.” 

TenantSee Weekly: Knowing Your When

TenantSee Weekly: Knowing Your When

We see a lot of confusion in the market around when to begin negotiations.  It’s not an insignificant consideration.  In fact, when you begin can make a huge difference in the outcome.  It’s understandable that tenants would not know when to start.  Brokers are not always keen to start at the right time, since compensation is derived by transacting and the closer the tenant is to lease expiration, the faster it will need to transact (and the fewer options it will have).  Good for the broker, bad for the tenant.  This creates a misalignment of interests that discourages thoughtful consultation on the front end – the more time a broker spends on a project, the lower the compensation. 

TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part VI: Negotiating the Lease

TenantSee Weekly:  Modern Workplace Planning:  Solving for Experience  Part VI:  Negotiating the Lease

Leases vary by building, by market, and by market circumstances.  In most major metros, when dealing with larger buildings, the lease document is sophisticated and complex, addressing a broad range of variables that will have a material impact on the occupier’s experience at the building, as well as its cost of occupancy.  If you’ve done a good job negotiating the letter of intent, you should begin the lease negotiation phase from a position of relative strength.  However, even when the letter of intent is fully maximized, there’s still a lot to negotiate in the lease.

TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part III: The Right Strategy

TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience  Part III:  The Right Strategy

Once you’ve established the purpose of your physical workspace, and given careful thought to budget and schedule, it’s time to develop the right strategy. This is a vital step prior to market engagement. Good strategy is not always obvious.  At a minimum, any effective real estate strategy will include simultaneous assessment of multiple deal scenarios. Why would this matter? For starters, negotiation outcomes are not known.  At the beginning of the process, the favored outcome may be to stay in the existing space. However, as the process evolves over multiple rounds of negotiation, we often find that things change in ways that may cause the desired outcome to shift. For example, when the existing landlord offers terms that are materially less favorable than those achievable through relocation. 

TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part I: The Purpose

TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience   Part I:  The Purpose

In the years leading up to the pandemic, most medium and small companies defined their office space need based on headcount (current and projected), space programming, and industry/sector norms.  The exercise was mostly formulaic.  The primary differences in the offices of a small, regional law firm compared to those of an AM Law 100 firm would be scale, the cost of finishes, and the quality of the building and views.  It was planning for the same outcome, just at different levels on the cost spectrum.  Companies having a larger portfolio of offices would typically create a “workplace strategy” that included guidelines around programming (e.g., space layout, office size, critical adjacencies, growth factor, finishes, FF&E, etc.).  These guidelines could then be used to inform the real estate process across geography.

TenantSee Weekly: The Office as Hotel

TenantSee Weekly: The Office as Hotel

I participate in a lot of “conversations” on LinkedIn in which people argue that office buildings should be as flexible as hotels.   I love to explore the possibilities, the idea the office can be something different, something better.  But sometimes these conversations are so detached from reality it makes my head hurt.

TenantSee Weekly: Successful Negotiating Strategies for Office Tenants

TenantSee Weekly: Successful Negotiating Strategies for Office Tenants

Many business executives know how to negotiate.  Indeed, it’s a vital skillset essential to advancement in nearly all careers.  But not all negotiations are equal.  Negotiating leases on behalf of office tenants, for example, is a specialized undertaking.  As with all negotiations, successful tenant lease negotiations are highly correlated with understanding the motivations of the counterparty.  This means knowing everything about the landlord, including the equity and debt positions, the investment thesis, the leasing dynamic at the building (vacancy, lease rollover, etc.), the value of any recently completed comparable lease transactions in the building and in the market, and the overall market dynamic.  These factors are fundamental to assessing leverage.  Yet even when these basic elements are in place, the act of exercising leverage also requires special skills. 

TenantSee Weekly: The Negative Deal

TenantSee Weekly:  The Negative Deal

Investors invest in office buildings to generate a positive return on their investment.  Return is created in 2 primary ways, one is through ongoing profits generated from the individual leasing transactions completed within the project, and the other is through financing activities (taking on debt which allows the investor to pull equity from the investment or selling the asset).  This TenantSee Weekly is focused on the first of these 2 scenarios, the one in which the landlord seeks to create positive cash flow through its leasing activities.

TenantSee Weekly: Translating the Lease

TenantSee Weekly: Translating the Lease

Recently, we completed a lease for a client in a small San Francisco building.  The transaction was negotiated to provide our client with a tenant improvement allowance, and the right to manage their construction.  Because the client is a design firm, this approach suited them well.  They understand design and construction and can leverage relationships to mitigate cost.  The ownership of this building is not an institution, its management team lacks the sophistication you would otherwise see with professionals working for larger institutional owners.  The lease provided the landlord with the right to approve the plans prior to construction, but it notably lacked a specific mechanism for communicating such approval.  Our client provided detailed plans.  They received a few minor comments/questions to which they responded promptly.  Otherwise, the landlord agreed to the project schedule and let them commence their construction – implicit approval.  During the construction, the client invited the management team to attend weekly meetings, to walk the space and generally sought to keep them informed (under no obligation to do so).  Despite a few bumps along the way (the building had non-compliance in a few areas and a small amount of hazmat was discovered), the project was successfully completed.  However, after moving into the space, the landlord sent a letter stating numerous elements of the construction had been completed without its approval, and the space must be restored at the end of the lease term (an undertaking which would cost hundreds of thousands of dollars).  Naturally, our client was concerned.  Thankfully, they sent us the letter and asked for our guidance.

TenantSee Weekly: Timing the Downturn

TenantSee Weekly: Timing the Downturn

Since the pandemic, the cost to lease San Francisco office space, but for the most premium segment of the market, has steadily declined.  The pace of decline is beginning to accelerate as more landlords capitulate to unprecedented vacancy and reduced demand, just as more companies are (finally) taking a longer-range approach to workplace. For occupiers, this provides a welcome respite from the relentless effects of a decades-long dynamic in which the office market was both too tight and too expensive.   
 

TenantSee Weekly: The Lingering Fog of a Bull Market

TenantSee Weekly:  The Lingering Fog of a Bull Market

The Lingering Fog of a Bull Market.
 
Advisors on the right side of a bull market end up looking good, no matter what they do.  This was certainly the case for landlord advisors in the San Francisco office market for the ~10 years leading up to the pandemic, a time when you could win for losing, as the deal you failed to make was often (quickly) replaced by a new deal at better rental economics due to rapidly appreciating rents.  Today, both landlord advisors and the investors they advise are, in some cases, suffering from the lingering effects of the bull market.


TenantSee Weekly: Meet WALT

TenantSee Weekly: Meet WALT

WALT, or weighted average lease term, is an essential metric in the valuation of office buildings as it forecasts the stability of future cash flow.  WALT was less important back when office markets like San Francisco were seeing aggressive year over year rent growth.  Back then vacancy was worth more than leased space, the theory being a buyer could take advantage of vacant space to capture higher rent (necessary to justify inflated pricing which baked in aggressive rent growth assumptions).  However, in the broader historical context of valuation, the idea that vacancy is worth more than occupancy is antithetical to defining value.  Indeed, the more prevalent (and logical) approach to value hinges on the quality and duration of the net operating income.  Of course, this approach is less sexy as it disables a seller’s capacity to “sell the dream”.  The buyer is buying stability and yield, both of which are measurable going in.   

TenantSee Weekly: How to Protect From Landlord Default?

TenantSee Weekly:  How to Protect From Landlord Default?

Office building owners are facing the most challenging environment of the past 50 years due to substantial reductions in demand for space.  The shift in demand is not cyclical; it’s a systemic shift caused by changes in how work is done in the information economy.  In other words, investors can’t count on a swift reversion to the norm.  This dynamic is playing out globally.  There are geographic differences, but the fundamental trend is the same.  The impact on office investors has been swift and brutal, leaving many in a precarious financial position.

TenantSee Weekly: Sublease, Terminate, or Restructure

TenantSee Weekly: Sublease, Terminate, or Restructure

Subleasing is the most common approach occupiers take in mitigating the cost of underutilized space.  Yet in San Francisco, it has become increasingly difficult to sublease office space.  With recoveries ranging from 0 to 25%, companies must consider the full spectrum of options.  Remember, too, sublease recoveries can be expensive to execute (fees and concessions); and, in subleasing, the occupier takes on a variety of risks that can prove costly (e.g., subtenant default). 

TenantSee Weekly: Q2 2023 The Tenant's Perspective

TenantSee Weekly: Q2 2023 The Tenant's Perspective

Occupiers continue to add sublease space to an already saturated market, and to downsize their occupancy requirement at lease expiration.  Market participants, including investors, are now accepting as fact the new ways of using office space will result in less demand for their product.  During the first couple of years of the pandemic, investors, enjoying record high levels of occupancy and strong cash flow, naturally chose to believe in a future narrative that included a rebound to 2019 demand levels.  Their optimistic (if not realistic) outlook had them waking up in 2023 with 7m to 10m square feet of demand and 4% vacancy.  But it’s now clear this is not how things are playing out.