When you look at an office building, what do you see? Maybe you see the architecture. Maybe it’s the neighborhood, the restaurants, and amenities. Perhaps, you see the views from within the building. This is what most people see. They’re all important. But it’s what you don’t see that matters most.
We see a lot of confusion in the market around when to begin negotiations. It’s not an insignificant consideration. In fact, when you begin can make a huge difference in the outcome. It’s understandable that tenants would not know when to start. Brokers are not always keen to start at the right time, since compensation is derived by transacting and the closer the tenant is to lease expiration, the faster it will need to transact (and the fewer options it will have). Good for the broker, bad for the tenant. This creates a misalignment of interests that discourages thoughtful consultation on the front end – the more time a broker spends on a project, the lower the compensation.
Throughout 2020, the prevailing sentiment among investors in the San Francisco office market was one of relative optimism. After all, despite the fact tenants were prohibited from occupying their buildings, they continued to collect full rent. The buildings were full, with vacancy hovering around 4%. Sure, companies weren’t happy about paying for space they couldn’t use, but business was good. In many cases the tech sector (which makes up most of San Francisco’s office occupancy) was booming due to an even greater reliance on and usage of tech caused by pandemic driven changes in how people were living. Throughout the course of 2020 there was no reason for San Francisco investors to panic, as few (if any) office occupiers were showing signs of developing long-term hybrid or remote-first strategies. Most were simply focused on solving for ongoing operations as a temporary reaction to the pandemic. Yet early indicators did point to a future in which companies would be shedding office space, as some expiring leases were not replaced. This, coupled with the addition of new supply, caused a big increase in vacancy to nearly 12% by year end. Despite this large uptick, the brunt of the sluggish demand dynamic was being felt in the sublease markets, where rental economics more accurately reflected the true state of the market. Despite a total closing of the office market in 2020, average asking rents ended the year off just 6% from the pre-pandemic high.
In the years leading up to the pandemic, most medium and small companies defined their office space need based on headcount (current and projected), space programming, and industry/sector norms. The exercise was mostly formulaic. The primary differences in the offices of a small, regional law firm compared to those of an AM Law 100 firm would be scale, the cost of finishes, and the quality of the building and views. It was planning for the same outcome, just at different levels on the cost spectrum. Companies having a larger portfolio of offices would typically create a “workplace strategy” that included guidelines around programming (e.g., space layout, office size, critical adjacencies, growth factor, finishes, FF&E, etc.). These guidelines could then be used to inform the real estate process across geography.
Negotiations are always about (or should always be about) this or that. There’s always something else, maybe that something else is nothing (as in sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all). Decisions made without proper consideration of all relevant alternative scenarios are decisions made poorly. As important, in the context of office lease negotiations, the best negotiated outcomes are directly correlated to the extent to which we understand the alternatives of the landlord counterparty. This is a bit counter intuitive, allow us to explain.
One often-overlooked section of your office lease is the part that sets limits on how many people you can have in the space—or how much electricity you can use. These “consumption limits” give the landlord the right to charge you extra if your usage exceeds what's considered standard (though that “standard” isn’t always clearly defined).
A debt coverage ratio (DCR) is calculated by dividing a building’s net operating income (NOI) by its debt service. In office buildings, NOI comes from rents minus expenses and taxes. Lenders typically require a DCR of 1.2–1.35. If it drops below that, the landlord is technically in default—even if they’re making payments.
In the business of advising office tenants on leasing space, services are provided by a wide range of firms—from solo practitioners to global public companies with thousands of employees. As in any competitive industry, each firm tries to differentiate itself by highlighting its strengths while casting doubt on the competition.
We’ve written a lot over the past few years about the capital stack, the equity and debt structures that commonly define ownership of office assets. We’ve talked about “broken” capital stacks, situations in which the original equity is wiped out and some portion of the debt may also be under water. We’ve noted it’s very challenging to transact in these assets because the financial partners would need to invest more capital on transactions that would generate negative returns. In other words, good money after bad.
At TenantSee, we only advise clients under a formal working agreement that clearly outlines our role as the exclusive representative, the scope of services, and how we are compensated. It’s a short, straightforward document—but a vital one. It establishes our fiduciary duty and marks the official beginning of our advisory relationship.
If you’re a business professional—accountant, lawyer, engineer, or even (gulp) an office broker—you’ve probably wondered: Can AI do my job better than me?
As a broker who advises office tenants, I tested ChatGPT in a domain I know well. I asked it for average Class A office rents in downtown San Francisco over the last 30 years, including supply and demand dynamics. In less than a minute, it delivered a surprisingly accurate answer.
Most of what tenants need to see in order to make smart leasing decisions is not immediately visible. It must be uncovered through strategic discovery and analysis. That’s the mission of TenantSee: to provide the process and resources that bring hidden factors to light. We don’t make decisions for our clients—we make their decisions better.
For many companies, office space is among a variety of resources they make available to employees to help facilitate work. Other primary resources include technology. In fact, today, technology arguably contributes more to how work is done than the physical office. The diminished role of the office in facilitating work has resulted in changes in how companies look to use office space. One manifestation of this change is in flexible offices, or coworking spaces. This product segment, having grown considerably over the past decade, is tangible proof of shifting consumer sentiment.
Fear sells. But that doesn’t mean you should buy it. So called “tenant only” firms sell the idea that they, alone, offer tenants conflict-free advisory. To be clear, the potential for conflict does exist in commercial real estate advisory (more on that later). Yes, as a consumer of such services, it’s important to be aware of how conflict can manifest. However, the conflict narrative being peddled by the tenant only firms is more myth than reality. It’s a clever sleight of hand, designed to distract the consumer from realizing the big gaps in knowledge that limit the tenant only firm’s ability to properly advise, while simultaneously suggesting great risk in hiring a full-service competitor.
The pace of investment sale activity in San Francisco is accelerating. This is the “Great Reset” about which we’ve written. It’s driven by capital partners (equity/lenders) deciding there is no viable pathway to own their way to an exit and choosing to sell (usually at a steep discount to what they paid and/or the value of the debt). Ultimately, these capital stack resets are healthy as they activate the asset, enabling new capital partners to transact at market.
In the 1990s, my pants fit more loosely. They were often pleated. Then, seemingly overnight, loose fitting, pleated pants were out of fashion. To be fashionable required an entirely new product, a new look. My now out of fashion, yet still perfectly serviceable, pleated trousers were initially (optimistically?) relegated to the back of the closet, ultimately to be unceremoniously delivered to Goodwill.
The office product offering is shifting to provide an array of hospitality-inspired experiences that, in some cases, rival those of a 5-Star hotel. San Francisco landlords have lagged other markets in providing such high-end amenities because in the 2 decades prior to the pandemic, the supply/demand dynamic favored landlords, making it easier to lease space (e.g., they didn’t have to). For the past several years, however, San Francisco landlords have begun to spend millions on targeted amenities. The typical playbook calls for some combination of health/fitness, conferencing and events, club/lounge/bar spaces, and specialty spaces, like golf simulator rooms and podcasting studios.
