Op-Ed, Commercial Real Estate, Bay Area
greg fogg
TenantSee Weekly: Knowing Your When

We see a lot of confusion in the market around when to begin negotiations.  It’s not an insignificant consideration.  In fact, when you begin can make a huge difference in the outcome.  It’s understandable that tenants would not know when to start.  Brokers are not always keen to start at the right time, since compensation is derived by transacting and the closer the tenant is to lease expiration, the faster it will need to transact (and the fewer options it will have).  Good for the broker, bad for the tenant.  This creates a misalignment of interests that discourages thoughtful consultation on the front end – the more time a broker spends on a project, the lower the compensation. 

TenantSee Weekly: Knowing Your When
Op-Ed, Commercial Real Estate, Bay Area
greg fogg
TenantSee Weeky: A Big Decline in Rents, Four ...

Throughout 2020, the prevailing sentiment among investors in the San Francisco office market was one of relative optimism.  After all, despite the fact tenants were prohibited from occupying their buildings, they continued to collect full rent.  The buildings were full, with vacancy hovering around 4%.  Sure, companies weren’t happy about paying for space they couldn’t use, but business was good.  In many cases the tech sector (which makes up most of San Francisco’s office occupancy) was booming due to an even greater reliance on and usage of tech caused by pandemic driven changes in how people were living.  Throughout the course of 2020 there was no reason for San Francisco investors to panic, as few (if any) office occupiers were showing signs of developing long-term hybrid or remote-first strategies.  Most were simply focused on solving for ongoing operations as a temporary reaction to the pandemic.  Yet early indicators did point to a future in which companies would be shedding office space, as some expiring leases were not replaced.  This, coupled with the addition of new supply, caused a big increase in vacancy to nearly 12% by year end.  Despite this large uptick, the brunt of the sluggish demand dynamic was being felt in the sublease markets, where rental economics more accurately reflected the true state of the market.  Despite a total closing of the office market in 2020, average asking rents ended the year off just 6% from the pre-pandemic high.

TenantSee Weeky: A Big Decline in Rents, Four Years in the Making
Bay Area, Commercial Real Estate, Op-Ed
greg fogg
TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: ...

In the years leading up to the pandemic, most medium and small companies defined their office space need based on headcount (current and projected), space programming, and industry/sector norms.  The exercise was mostly formulaic.  The primary differences in the offices of a small, regional law firm compared to those of an AM Law 100 firm would be scale, the cost of finishes, and the quality of the building and views.  It was planning for the same outcome, just at different levels on the cost spectrum.  Companies having a larger portfolio of offices would typically create a “workplace strategy” that included guidelines around programming (e.g., space layout, office size, critical adjacencies, growth factor, finishes, FF&E, etc.).  These guidelines could then be used to inform the real estate process across geography.

TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part I: The Purpose
Bay Area, Commercial Real Estate, Op-Ed
greg fogg
TenantSee Weekly: This, or That?

Negotiations are always about (or should always be about) this or that.  There’s always something else, maybe that something else is nothing (as in sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all).  Decisions made without proper consideration of all relevant alternative scenarios are decisions made poorly.  As important, in the context of office lease negotiations, the best negotiated outcomes are directly correlated to the extent to which we understand the alternatives of the landlord counterparty.  This is a bit counter intuitive, allow us to explain. 

TenantSee Weekly: This, or That?
Bay Area, Commercial Real Estate, Op-Ed
greg fogg
TenantSee Weekly: I Digress...

A little AI distraction to cheer your day (and relieve us of yet another discussion about workplace). Ever wandered through the streets and felt like you've stepped into the future? With their undeniable presence here in San Francisco, the driverless car is quickly becoming the most prominent representation of AI in our daily lives. If you spend any time in San Francisco neighborhoods, you can’t miss them. The other day, as I chatted with a neighbor, I counted 6 autonomous vehicles casually cruise by our front door within a span of 10 minutes. Intriguing, right? And today, in a twist of irony, I was held up by one. Blocked by a double-parked UPS truck, the driverless car hesitated, unsure about navigating into the lane of oncoming traffic. Of course, all the drivers in the opposing lane weren’t too keen to make space for the driverless car, as one normally would (or at least the more decent among us would) for a human-driven vehicle. Hence, we waited.

TenantSee Weekly: I Digress...

#officeleasing

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TenantSee Weekly: Planning for the Future, not the Moment

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TenantSee Weekly: Planning for the Future, not the Moment

Urban planning can go horribly wrong.  It often fails the test of time.  1950s America brought a surge in suburban development and car transportation.  It also led to one of the single worst American urban design decisions (my opinion), the development of the Embarcadero Freeway, originally intended to connect the San Francisco Bay Bridge to the Golden Gate Bridge by extending along the northeastern edge of the city as it hugs the bay -- effectively blocking the views along one of the most scenic corridors in any US city. 

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TenantSee Weekly: Impossible Math

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TenantSee Weekly: Impossible Math

Imagine you invested in an office building in San Francisco in 2015.  At the time, the building was 95% occupied.  You paid $750/sf for the building and secured a loan on 50% of the value at the rate of 3.5%.  50% of the building’s tenant leases rolled in 2023/2024, a fact you underwrote as opportunity, opportunity to increase net operating income by achieving higher rents.  Then the pandemic hit.

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TenantSee Weekly: Encumbrances

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TenantSee Weekly: Encumbrances

An encumbrance is a burden or impediment.  Office leases often contain rights which are exclusive to a specific tenant and which place constraints on the landlord’s ability to lease space to other, 3rd party tenants.  These rights are referred to as encumbrances.  When tenants consider leasing space in a building, one of the first things they should qualify is the extent to which the landlord’s ability to lease the subject space is subject to any encumbrances.  If so, the specific terms of these encumbrances must be understood before proceeding.

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TenantSee Weekly: I Was Told We'd Be Discussing the Office...

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TenantSee Weekly: I Was Told We'd Be Discussing the Office...

AI has summarized capitalism for me as follows:

“…an economic system where private individuals and corporations own and control the means of production, such as property, businesses, and industries. In capitalism, the core principles are profit motive, private property, and market competition. The government's role is limited to taxation and standard regulatory laws, and individuals are given the freedom to operate their businesses and manage their income as they choose.” 

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TenantSee Weekly: Friday

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TenantSee Weekly: Friday

Walking the near empty streets of downtown San Francisco on this beautiful August Friday, inspired us to ask our friend ChatGPT to craft a poem about the economic impact of workless Fridays.  Enjoy!

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TenantSee Weekly: What Comes Next For Office

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TenantSee Weekly: What Comes Next For Office

We’ve noticed an interesting shift in how companies are thinking about their offices.  For some time now, many companies have resolved to employ a hybrid approach to workplace, having employees work in office for a designated number of days each week.  In many cases, this solution was chosen more for how it seemingly struck a compromise between employers who wanted employees in the office and employees who sought freedom to choose.  To date, companies have been relatively lax in enforcing their workplace plan.  What’s changed?   Leadership is now becoming increasingly frustrated at spending on underutilized real estate.  Companies track space usage, and they don’t like what they’re seeing.  The occupancy reality is often way below what it would otherwise be if employees were following the hybrid work policy.  The company leasing 10,000 sf to accommodate an average of 10 workers each day is (painfully) aware of the wasted spend. 

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TenantSee Weekly: Work

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TenantSee Weekly: Work

Over the past several years the concept of work has undergone more change than at any point in recent history.  While there’s many narratives, one common discussion centers on changing where and when we work to make work less harmful to our health.  This is exemplified by remote work. 
 
Work can certainly be harmful.  Yet few among us can avoid harm.  Indeed, harm often comes to us in ways we cannot and do not anticipate.  Sometimes what seems good turns out to be bad.  The very world in which we live is full of harmful realities.  I’m not convinced the absence of work brings less harm.  Nor am I convinced the changes we’re seeing now around how and where we work are as good for us as we hope they will be.  I think we’re generally failing to account for a variety of negative consequences that are slowly becoming more apparent.

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TenantSee Weekly: From Blend and Extend to End and Extend

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TenantSee Weekly: From Blend and Extend to End and Extend

The so called “blend and extend” deal structure has a number of applications, among them a scenario in which a landlord might account for a downward adjustment to a tenant’s rent by amortizing the value of the adjustment with interest into a new term.  Say, for example, a tenant has 3 years remaining on a lease and the market value for the space has dropped from $75/sf to $60/sf.  The landlord would adjust the rate to market ($60/sf) and spread the $15/sf differential over the new term.  If the interest rate were 8%, and the term 7-years, this would add $2.80/sf to the rent. 

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TenantSee Weekly: Knowing Your When

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TenantSee Weekly: Knowing Your When

We see a lot of confusion in the market around when to begin negotiations.  It’s not an insignificant consideration.  In fact, when you begin can make a huge difference in the outcome.  It’s understandable that tenants would not know when to start.  Brokers are not always keen to start at the right time, since compensation is derived by transacting and the closer the tenant is to lease expiration, the faster it will need to transact (and the fewer options it will have).  Good for the broker, bad for the tenant.  This creates a misalignment of interests that discourages thoughtful consultation on the front end – the more time a broker spends on a project, the lower the compensation. 

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TenantSee Weekly: Sweet Spot

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TenantSee Weekly: Sweet Spot

How do you know when you’ve fully accessed market leverage in negotiating a lease extension?  It’s when you find the sweet spot, a place in which the economics of the potential relocation lease match the lowest value the existing landlord is willing to offer.  This is not a simple exercise of identifying the asking rents for alternative sites and asking the landlord to match.  No, instead, it’s a byproduct of a carefully orchestrated negotiation that involves 2 main elements: 

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TenantSee Weeky: A Big Decline in Rents, Four Years in the Making

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TenantSee Weeky: A Big Decline in Rents, Four Years in the Making

Throughout 2020, the prevailing sentiment among investors in the San Francisco office market was one of relative optimism.  After all, despite the fact tenants were prohibited from occupying their buildings, they continued to collect full rent.  The buildings were full, with vacancy hovering around 4%.  Sure, companies weren’t happy about paying for space they couldn’t use, but business was good.  In many cases the tech sector (which makes up most of San Francisco’s office occupancy) was booming due to an even greater reliance on and usage of tech caused by pandemic driven changes in how people were living.  Throughout the course of 2020 there was no reason for San Francisco investors to panic, as few (if any) office occupiers were showing signs of developing long-term hybrid or remote-first strategies.  Most were simply focused on solving for ongoing operations as a temporary reaction to the pandemic.  Yet early indicators did point to a future in which companies would be shedding office space, as some expiring leases were not replaced.  This, coupled with the addition of new supply, caused a big increase in vacancy to nearly 12% by year end.  Despite this large uptick, the brunt of the sluggish demand dynamic was being felt in the sublease markets, where rental economics more accurately reflected the true state of the market.  Despite a total closing of the office market in 2020, average asking rents ended the year off just 6% from the pre-pandemic high.

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TenantSee Weekly: Thinking About Physical Spaces

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TenantSee Weekly: Thinking About Physical Spaces

I suspect most of us are caught off guard by change at scale.  When thinking about the pace of change over the last 15 years, it’s clear we’ve entered a new era, one in which technology is enabling us to rethink EVERYTHING.  Change in how we design and occupy physical space is inevitable.  The skyscraper boom began in the late 1800s and the product playbook in urban core office markets has remained mostly unchanged for decades.  Similarly, the ways in which the office product has been developed and owned, the investment thesis, has been largely unchanged in how it relies on capturing the best occupants in leases that reflect the highest possible pricing and the longest possible term to generate stable net operating income and bankable future value.

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TenantSee Weekly: Solve for Experience!

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TenantSee Weekly: Solve for Experience!

US office markets are not healthy.  The symptoms include reduced demand due to remote work, eroding rental economics due to mounting vacancy and broken capital stacks.  The pandemic was the catalyst, but technology is the true source of the suffering.  Technology is where many aspects of white-collar work are now done.   I asked Chat GPT to define the office and then I asked it to define the office in 1990.  Here’s how it responded: