Op-Ed, Commercial Real Estate, Bay Area
greg fogg
TenantSee Weekly: What Do You See?

When you look at an office building, what do you see?  Maybe you see the architecture.  Maybe it’s the neighborhood, the restaurants, and amenities.  Perhaps, you see the views from within the building.  This is what most people see.  They’re all important.  But it’s what you don’t see that matters most.

TenantSee Weekly: What Do You See?
Op-Ed, Commercial Real Estate, Bay Area
greg fogg
TenantSee Weekly: Knowing Your When

We see a lot of confusion in the market around when to begin negotiations.  It’s not an insignificant consideration.  In fact, when you begin can make a huge difference in the outcome.  It’s understandable that tenants would not know when to start.  Brokers are not always keen to start at the right time, since compensation is derived by transacting and the closer the tenant is to lease expiration, the faster it will need to transact (and the fewer options it will have).  Good for the broker, bad for the tenant.  This creates a misalignment of interests that discourages thoughtful consultation on the front end – the more time a broker spends on a project, the lower the compensation. 

TenantSee Weekly: Knowing Your When
Op-Ed, Commercial Real Estate, Bay Area
greg fogg
TenantSee Weeky: A Big Decline in Rents, Four ...

Throughout 2020, the prevailing sentiment among investors in the San Francisco office market was one of relative optimism.  After all, despite the fact tenants were prohibited from occupying their buildings, they continued to collect full rent.  The buildings were full, with vacancy hovering around 4%.  Sure, companies weren’t happy about paying for space they couldn’t use, but business was good.  In many cases the tech sector (which makes up most of San Francisco’s office occupancy) was booming due to an even greater reliance on and usage of tech caused by pandemic driven changes in how people were living.  Throughout the course of 2020 there was no reason for San Francisco investors to panic, as few (if any) office occupiers were showing signs of developing long-term hybrid or remote-first strategies.  Most were simply focused on solving for ongoing operations as a temporary reaction to the pandemic.  Yet early indicators did point to a future in which companies would be shedding office space, as some expiring leases were not replaced.  This, coupled with the addition of new supply, caused a big increase in vacancy to nearly 12% by year end.  Despite this large uptick, the brunt of the sluggish demand dynamic was being felt in the sublease markets, where rental economics more accurately reflected the true state of the market.  Despite a total closing of the office market in 2020, average asking rents ended the year off just 6% from the pre-pandemic high.

TenantSee Weeky: A Big Decline in Rents, Four Years in the Making
Bay Area, Commercial Real Estate, Op-Ed
greg fogg
TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: ...

In the years leading up to the pandemic, most medium and small companies defined their office space need based on headcount (current and projected), space programming, and industry/sector norms.  The exercise was mostly formulaic.  The primary differences in the offices of a small, regional law firm compared to those of an AM Law 100 firm would be scale, the cost of finishes, and the quality of the building and views.  It was planning for the same outcome, just at different levels on the cost spectrum.  Companies having a larger portfolio of offices would typically create a “workplace strategy” that included guidelines around programming (e.g., space layout, office size, critical adjacencies, growth factor, finishes, FF&E, etc.).  These guidelines could then be used to inform the real estate process across geography.

TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part I: The Purpose
Bay Area, Commercial Real Estate, Op-Ed
greg fogg
TenantSee Weekly: This, or That?

Negotiations are always about (or should always be about) this or that.  There’s always something else, maybe that something else is nothing (as in sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all).  Decisions made without proper consideration of all relevant alternative scenarios are decisions made poorly.  As important, in the context of office lease negotiations, the best negotiated outcomes are directly correlated to the extent to which we understand the alternatives of the landlord counterparty.  This is a bit counter intuitive, allow us to explain. 

TenantSee Weekly: This, or That?

#landlordmotivations

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TenantSee Weekly: When the Landlord Isn't (the Value of Options)

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TenantSee Weekly: When the Landlord Isn't (the Value of Options)

We’ve written a lot over the past few years about the capital stack, the equity and debt structures that commonly define ownership of office assets.  We’ve talked about “broken” capital stacks, situations in which the original equity is wiped out and some portion of the debt may also be under water.  We’ve noted it’s very challenging to transact in these assets because the financial partners would need to invest more capital on transactions that would generate negative returns.  In other words, good money after bad.
 

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TenantSee Weekly: What's Missing

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TenantSee Weekly: What's Missing

Negotiating office leases is like any other complex financial decision in that more information leads to better decisions.  Yet companies face challenges acquiring the right information at the right time. Why? Because the services typically offered by real estate brokerages are centered on transacting based on site selection and the negotiation of basic rental economics.  This is not enough.  Sometimes, these services (at least) include a level of multi-building negotiation, exercising a degree of leverage, but too often they lack the proper structure to gather and assess critical data, data that will have a big impact on outcome. 

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TenantSee Weekly: How a Building Sale Affects Lease Negotiations

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TenantSee Weekly: How a Building Sale Affects Lease Negotiations

The pace of investment sale activity in San Francisco is accelerating.  This is the “Great Reset” about which we’ve written.  It’s driven by capital partners (equity/lenders) deciding there is no viable pathway to own their way to an exit and choosing to sell (usually at a steep discount to what they paid and/or the value of the debt).  Ultimately, these capital stack resets are healthy as they activate the asset, enabling new capital partners to transact at market.

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TenantSee Weekly: Leverage

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TenantSee Weekly: Leverage

The concept is simple.  It’s the thing you use to make the deal better.  But in real estate negotiations, the extent of a tenant’s leverage and how best to exercise it, is less than obvious.

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TenantSee Weekly: What Do You See?

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TenantSee Weekly: What Do You See?

When you look at an office building, what do you see?  Maybe you see the architecture.  Maybe it’s the neighborhood, the restaurants, and amenities.  Perhaps, you see the views from within the building.  This is what most people see.  They’re all important.  But it’s what you don’t see that matters most.

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TenantSee Weekly: What's the Rate

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TenantSee Weekly: What's the Rate

If you look at the quarterly market reports provided by all major real estate service firms (Cushman & Wakefield, included), you will find that rent data is typically expressed in terms of “Asking Rents”.  Reports will cite the trend in Average Asking Rents by submarket, or by building class.  This is a somewhat misleading indicator.  Why?  Because it does not reflect the rent after negotiations, which often includes reductions in rate from the Asking Rate and potentially significant landlord-funded concessions.  In other words, Asking Rents reflect what landlords are asking, not what they’re getting.

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TenantSee Weekly: Sell Your Occupancy by Leveraging Options

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TenantSee Weekly: Sell Your Occupancy by Leveraging Options

Negotiating a great office leasing outcome requires engagement with multiple prospective landlords over multiple rounds of negotiation.  It’s not just about having options; it’s about using them to create leverage.

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TenantSee Weekly: Impossible Math

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TenantSee Weekly: Impossible Math

Imagine you invested in an office building in San Francisco in 2015.  At the time, the building was 95% occupied.  You paid $750/sf for the building and secured a loan on 50% of the value at the rate of 3.5%.  50% of the building’s tenant leases rolled in 2023/2024, a fact you underwrote as opportunity, opportunity to increase net operating income by achieving higher rents.  Then the pandemic hit.

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TenantSee Weekly: How Your Landlord's Tax Reduction May Cost You

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TenantSee Weekly: How Your Landlord's Tax Reduction May Cost You

Over the past several years, the market value of San Francisco office buildings has dropped by more than 30%.  Indeed, in some cases, asset values have declined much more, as evidenced by valuations associated with vacancy-challenged asset sales over the past couple of years.  Importantly, a large percentage of the San Francisco office market either traded or was financed in the years prior to the pandemic, when valuations were high and debt was cheap.  These activities created increased tax revenue for the city.

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TenantSee Weekly: Active Listening, the Skilled Negotiator's Secret Weapon

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TenantSee Weekly: Active Listening, the Skilled Negotiator's Secret Weapon

Office lease negotiations are complex, involving numerous parties (the principals and their advisors), and covering a wide range of issues, from economic to legal.  The most effective negotiators are those who possess both a deep understanding of the markets, and the ability to actively listen while negotiating. 

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TenantSee Weekly: The Ingredients Matter

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TenantSee Weekly: The Ingredients Matter

Strategy is to occupier real estate what a recipe is to a great meal.  A recipe is more than the sum of its parts.  It’s about how each ingredient is prepared, how and when it’s added to the mix.  As with any recipe in which there are primary ingredients, vital to its success, similarly, every great strategy requires 3 main parts:

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TenantSee Weekly: From Blend and Extend to End and Extend

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TenantSee Weekly: From Blend and Extend to End and Extend

The so called “blend and extend” deal structure has a number of applications, among them a scenario in which a landlord might account for a downward adjustment to a tenant’s rent by amortizing the value of the adjustment with interest into a new term.  Say, for example, a tenant has 3 years remaining on a lease and the market value for the space has dropped from $75/sf to $60/sf.  The landlord would adjust the rate to market ($60/sf) and spread the $15/sf differential over the new term.  If the interest rate were 8%, and the term 7-years, this would add $2.80/sf to the rent. 

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TenantSee Weeky: A Big Decline in Rents, Four Years in the Making

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TenantSee Weeky: A Big Decline in Rents, Four Years in the Making

Throughout 2020, the prevailing sentiment among investors in the San Francisco office market was one of relative optimism.  After all, despite the fact tenants were prohibited from occupying their buildings, they continued to collect full rent.  The buildings were full, with vacancy hovering around 4%.  Sure, companies weren’t happy about paying for space they couldn’t use, but business was good.  In many cases the tech sector (which makes up most of San Francisco’s office occupancy) was booming due to an even greater reliance on and usage of tech caused by pandemic driven changes in how people were living.  Throughout the course of 2020 there was no reason for San Francisco investors to panic, as few (if any) office occupiers were showing signs of developing long-term hybrid or remote-first strategies.  Most were simply focused on solving for ongoing operations as a temporary reaction to the pandemic.  Yet early indicators did point to a future in which companies would be shedding office space, as some expiring leases were not replaced.  This, coupled with the addition of new supply, caused a big increase in vacancy to nearly 12% by year end.  Despite this large uptick, the brunt of the sluggish demand dynamic was being felt in the sublease markets, where rental economics more accurately reflected the true state of the market.  Despite a total closing of the office market in 2020, average asking rents ended the year off just 6% from the pre-pandemic high.

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TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part VI: Negotiating the Lease

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TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part VI: Negotiating the Lease

Leases vary by building, by market, and by market circumstances.  In most major metros, when dealing with larger buildings, the lease document is sophisticated and complex, addressing a broad range of variables that will have a material impact on the occupier’s experience at the building, as well as its cost of occupancy.  If you’ve done a good job negotiating the letter of intent, you should begin the lease negotiation phase from a position of relative strength.  However, even when the letter of intent is fully maximized, there’s still a lot to negotiate in the lease.

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TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part IV: Implementing an Effective Market Process

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TenantSee Weekly: Modern Workplace Planning: Solving for Experience Part IV: Implementing an Effective Market Process

You’ve identified the purpose behind your physical space needs, you’ve created a thorough project budget and schedule, and you’ve developed the right strategy.  It’s now time to implement a market process. 
 
What is “…a market process”?  In the context of office leasing, market process is how you engage the market.  It ties to your strategy, with sensitivity to the objectives you seek to accomplish.  The market is where you implement your strategy, where you take it from theory to reality. 

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TenantSee Weekly: Successful Negotiating Strategies for Office Tenants

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TenantSee Weekly: Successful Negotiating Strategies for Office Tenants

Many business executives know how to negotiate.  Indeed, it’s a vital skillset essential to advancement in nearly all careers.  But not all negotiations are equal.  Negotiating leases on behalf of office tenants, for example, is a specialized undertaking.  As with all negotiations, successful tenant lease negotiations are highly correlated with understanding the motivations of the counterparty.  This means knowing everything about the landlord, including the equity and debt positions, the investment thesis, the leasing dynamic at the building (vacancy, lease rollover, etc.), the value of any recently completed comparable lease transactions in the building and in the market, and the overall market dynamic.  These factors are fundamental to assessing leverage.  Yet even when these basic elements are in place, the act of exercising leverage also requires special skills. 

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TenantSee Weekly: Meet WALT

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TenantSee Weekly: Meet WALT

WALT, or weighted average lease term, is an essential metric in the valuation of office buildings as it forecasts the stability of future cash flow.  WALT was less important back when office markets like San Francisco were seeing aggressive year over year rent growth.  Back then vacancy was worth more than leased space, the theory being a buyer could take advantage of vacant space to capture higher rent (necessary to justify inflated pricing which baked in aggressive rent growth assumptions).  However, in the broader historical context of valuation, the idea that vacancy is worth more than occupancy is antithetical to defining value.  Indeed, the more prevalent (and logical) approach to value hinges on the quality and duration of the net operating income.  Of course, this approach is less sexy as it disables a seller’s capacity to “sell the dream”.  The buyer is buying stability and yield, both of which are measurable going in.