When you look at an office building, what do you see? Maybe you see the architecture. Maybe it’s the neighborhood, the restaurants, and amenities. Perhaps, you see the views from within the building. This is what most people see. They’re all important. But it’s what you don’t see that matters most.
We see a lot of confusion in the market around when to begin negotiations. It’s not an insignificant consideration. In fact, when you begin can make a huge difference in the outcome. It’s understandable that tenants would not know when to start. Brokers are not always keen to start at the right time, since compensation is derived by transacting and the closer the tenant is to lease expiration, the faster it will need to transact (and the fewer options it will have). Good for the broker, bad for the tenant. This creates a misalignment of interests that discourages thoughtful consultation on the front end – the more time a broker spends on a project, the lower the compensation.
Throughout 2020, the prevailing sentiment among investors in the San Francisco office market was one of relative optimism. After all, despite the fact tenants were prohibited from occupying their buildings, they continued to collect full rent. The buildings were full, with vacancy hovering around 4%. Sure, companies weren’t happy about paying for space they couldn’t use, but business was good. In many cases the tech sector (which makes up most of San Francisco’s office occupancy) was booming due to an even greater reliance on and usage of tech caused by pandemic driven changes in how people were living. Throughout the course of 2020 there was no reason for San Francisco investors to panic, as few (if any) office occupiers were showing signs of developing long-term hybrid or remote-first strategies. Most were simply focused on solving for ongoing operations as a temporary reaction to the pandemic. Yet early indicators did point to a future in which companies would be shedding office space, as some expiring leases were not replaced. This, coupled with the addition of new supply, caused a big increase in vacancy to nearly 12% by year end. Despite this large uptick, the brunt of the sluggish demand dynamic was being felt in the sublease markets, where rental economics more accurately reflected the true state of the market. Despite a total closing of the office market in 2020, average asking rents ended the year off just 6% from the pre-pandemic high.
In the years leading up to the pandemic, most medium and small companies defined their office space need based on headcount (current and projected), space programming, and industry/sector norms. The exercise was mostly formulaic. The primary differences in the offices of a small, regional law firm compared to those of an AM Law 100 firm would be scale, the cost of finishes, and the quality of the building and views. It was planning for the same outcome, just at different levels on the cost spectrum. Companies having a larger portfolio of offices would typically create a “workplace strategy” that included guidelines around programming (e.g., space layout, office size, critical adjacencies, growth factor, finishes, FF&E, etc.). These guidelines could then be used to inform the real estate process across geography.
Negotiations are always about (or should always be about) this or that. There’s always something else, maybe that something else is nothing (as in sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all). Decisions made without proper consideration of all relevant alternative scenarios are decisions made poorly. As important, in the context of office lease negotiations, the best negotiated outcomes are directly correlated to the extent to which we understand the alternatives of the landlord counterparty. This is a bit counter intuitive, allow us to explain.
People sometimes (mistakenly) think office building values are based on location and architectural design (appearance). These are contributing factors, however, in most urban centers, investors use the income capitalization approach to valuation. Here, the building is valued on current and projected net operating income (“NOI”). To be sure, location and design will translate to differing levels of NOI. But other variables play a key role, as well. For example, the landlord’s cost basis which impacts its ability to lease space at market pricing. Where a landlord has paid too much for the asset, the underlying rental economics of the market may result in net negative leasing outcomes, causing the landlord to lose deals to other assets which have a lower cost basis and can productively transact at market.
Office leases are complicated undertakings comprised of many variables. The markets offer a variety of solutions, ranging from coworking to subleases to long and short-term direct leases. It’s always important for corporate leaders to understand the primary objectives they seek to achieve in leasing office space. But even when these objectives are well defined, it can be tricky to assess which solution is best.
Technology replaces that which it improves.
Not long ago, the streets of San Francisco were full of taxis. Simply by raising your arm, you could hail a taxi in minutes. Then, Uber and Lyft created their apps. Their intention was always to disrupt an industry that hadn’t changed in decades. Initially, many taxi drivers transitioned to become Uber and Lyft drivers, likely anticipating the technology would shift, not replace their work. But that’s not how this is turning out. Autonomous vehicles will replace human-driven, human transport solutions in major cities where taxi drivers once thrived.
Surveys indicate most workers favor a distributed workplace in which they can work from anywhere, any time. When it comes to work, individuals focus (mostly) on their own specific benefits, as opposed to thinking about how the ways in which their work gets done affects the broader organization. This makes sense, as one of the key benefits of our economic system is how it permits the individual to get ahead, to maximize its value. Employees realize value in a variety of ways, including compensation and other variables. Flexibility in where and when people work is high on the list of non-compensation related variables.
Here’s how ChatGPT defines social facilitation: “Social facilitation is a psychological phenomenon that refers to the influence of the presence of others on an individual's performance of a task. It describes how the mere presence of other people, whether they are spectators, colleagues, or competitors, can affect an individual's behavior and performance.” In 1898, Indiana University’s Norman Triplett studied cyclists to determine differences in performance when racing other humans vs. the clock. He found, “…bodily presence of another contestant participating simultaneously in the race serves to liberate latent energy not ordinarily available…” I’ve experienced my own version of this in training for and running marathons. Without fail, I was always able to run faster and farther when in the presence of others. It turns out we have the capacity to do better, to do more, but reaching that next level is not easily accomplished alone.
Can We Talk About Work?
Have you noticed that people are very passionate about work? Not necessarily about what they do as much as how and where they do it. These days, talking about work has become a bit like talking about politics or religion. This is especially true in the world of social media, even in the tamer waters of LinkedIn, where if you post about the benefits of working in an office, or you appear curious about the longer-range impacts of remote work, you will most certainly be attacked. The attack comes from people vehemently opposed to return to office mandates, really to any concept of work that does not permit the employee a wide range of freedom in deciding where and when to work. Some of them have financial interests in shifting work patterns, for example as purveyors of coworking solutions. Others are anti-establishment, with echoes of the Occupy movement. The more reasonable voices in favor of remote work are academics like Nick Bloom. They conduct research and study work patterns, adding valuable balance to the discussion.
