When you look at an office building, what do you see? Maybe you see the architecture. Maybe it’s the neighborhood, the restaurants, and amenities. Perhaps, you see the views from within the building. This is what most people see. They’re all important. But it’s what you don’t see that matters most.
We see a lot of confusion in the market around when to begin negotiations. It’s not an insignificant consideration. In fact, when you begin can make a huge difference in the outcome. It’s understandable that tenants would not know when to start. Brokers are not always keen to start at the right time, since compensation is derived by transacting and the closer the tenant is to lease expiration, the faster it will need to transact (and the fewer options it will have). Good for the broker, bad for the tenant. This creates a misalignment of interests that discourages thoughtful consultation on the front end – the more time a broker spends on a project, the lower the compensation.
Throughout 2020, the prevailing sentiment among investors in the San Francisco office market was one of relative optimism. After all, despite the fact tenants were prohibited from occupying their buildings, they continued to collect full rent. The buildings were full, with vacancy hovering around 4%. Sure, companies weren’t happy about paying for space they couldn’t use, but business was good. In many cases the tech sector (which makes up most of San Francisco’s office occupancy) was booming due to an even greater reliance on and usage of tech caused by pandemic driven changes in how people were living. Throughout the course of 2020 there was no reason for San Francisco investors to panic, as few (if any) office occupiers were showing signs of developing long-term hybrid or remote-first strategies. Most were simply focused on solving for ongoing operations as a temporary reaction to the pandemic. Yet early indicators did point to a future in which companies would be shedding office space, as some expiring leases were not replaced. This, coupled with the addition of new supply, caused a big increase in vacancy to nearly 12% by year end. Despite this large uptick, the brunt of the sluggish demand dynamic was being felt in the sublease markets, where rental economics more accurately reflected the true state of the market. Despite a total closing of the office market in 2020, average asking rents ended the year off just 6% from the pre-pandemic high.
In the years leading up to the pandemic, most medium and small companies defined their office space need based on headcount (current and projected), space programming, and industry/sector norms. The exercise was mostly formulaic. The primary differences in the offices of a small, regional law firm compared to those of an AM Law 100 firm would be scale, the cost of finishes, and the quality of the building and views. It was planning for the same outcome, just at different levels on the cost spectrum. Companies having a larger portfolio of offices would typically create a “workplace strategy” that included guidelines around programming (e.g., space layout, office size, critical adjacencies, growth factor, finishes, FF&E, etc.). These guidelines could then be used to inform the real estate process across geography.
Negotiations are always about (or should always be about) this or that. There’s always something else, maybe that something else is nothing (as in sometimes the best thing to do is nothing at all). Decisions made without proper consideration of all relevant alternative scenarios are decisions made poorly. As important, in the context of office lease negotiations, the best negotiated outcomes are directly correlated to the extent to which we understand the alternatives of the landlord counterparty. This is a bit counter intuitive, allow us to explain.
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This Week's Topic: Who's On First
Dating myself with an Abbot and Costello reference. But the unnecessary confusion so many companies experience when trying to prioritize key factors that influence their real estate decisions reminds me of that famous skit.
Historically, rental rates have played an out-sized role in determining where companies lease office space. Today, as companies address leases they negotiated in 2010 – 2015, they understandably do so against the backdrop of the pandemic. The fact that many companies have not yet fully returned to their offices has created a sense among occupiers that rental rates should be substantially lower (e.g., the office market must be very soft since no one is there). But paying for space and using space are 2 different things – landlord rent collections remain high (~98%). San Francisco rents are down. But as of Q3, citywide average rents stand at $73.46, down only 12.4% from the pre-pandemic high; and class A CBD asking rents are $84.91, down just 7.4%. Hence, in most cases, tenants having leases expiring in 2022 and 2023 will find their rent is actually increasing from the in-place rate. This gap between expected outcomes and market reality can sometimes cause occupiers to make poor decisions. Rate, alone, is not a good measure. Total occupancy cost per employee is better. But the real question is what do you get for the cost? How does the occupancy cost impact the following:
One key feature of the tenant advisory platform my partners and I created, TenantSee, is the Market Diagnostic. What is it? In short, it’s an output we provide our clients, at no cost (it’s part of our advisory platform), which draws from a spectrum of subject matter experts within C&W to develop a narrative regarding leverage in a specific asset, in a specific market. It incorporates knowledge from our capital market and debt teams to understand an owner’s debt and equity positions. We engage our asset teams to identify operational variables relating to the asset. We leverage our research group for data regarding lease roll (Landlord exposure) and completed transactions in the asset and the comparable market. We study the owner’s motivation profile. In total, we develop a comprehensive market leverage narrative for our client that is sensitive to the asset, the market and timing.
A 10,000 sf office space is not actually 10,000 sf. In a high-rise building in downtown San Francisco, the “usable” square footage in a space having 10,000 rentable square feet is likely closer to 8,000 sf. But the tenant pays rent on the basis of 10,000 rentable square feet. Why is the tenant charged rent on 25% more space than it can actually use?
When I began my real estate career in San Francisco in the early 1990s, office buildings were mostly owned by private investors using a relatively small selection of institutional capital partners. The Shorenstein Company, whom I worked for from 1990 – 1995, was a great example. At that time, they were the largest owner of office buildings in San Francisco, holding 11M sf. During those days, most owners, including Shorenstein, employed a simple strategy centered on preserving tenants while minimizing cash requirements (funding of tenant improvements, etc.). In most cases, the first choice was to keep the existing tenant by offering a rental rate which was discounted to market. If that failed and the tenant moved out, the next step was to undercut the market by lowering the rental rate to steal a tenant away from another building. The goal was to buy and manage the asset to generate maximum cash flow, which the investors counted on each quarter. Importantly, the majority of assets were owned by this type of investor. But by the mid-1990s, the nature of office ownership was beginning a period of significant change which would materially impact rental economics for decades to come.
Landlords seeking to preserve future sale value have to protect the rental rate. The future sale value is tied to the building’s net operating income (“NOI”). NOI is the value achieved by deducting operating expenses and taxes from gross rent. This value is then capitalized using a cap rate to determine asset value. Hence the higher the face value of the rental rate, the greater the NOI and the higher the asset value.
This week we’re writing about an old topic that surfaces every now and again, usually when we come across a tenant who has chosen to negotiate a lease or lease renewal on its own. Why would a tenant do so? I think the most common reason is perceived savings. This scenario seems to play out most often in buildings owned by private investors (e.g., not institutions). Buildings where the landlord calls the tenant directly and proposes to renew the lease at a discount if the tenant negotiates without a broker.
Over the past year our small team based in San Francisco has not worked on a single assignment in which the client is expanding its leased office space. In some cases, the leased footprint remains the same, but many clients are decreasing their leased space. We're doing work all over North America. Client approaches to the office range from the following:
This San Francisco office market report is provided compliments of Samantha S. Low and Greg Fogg, Co-Founders of TenantSee. TenantSee is a tenant real estate product combining a team of subject-matter experts with powerful technology to make tenant real estate smarter, faster, and better. Our report is intended to provide you the tenant, with meaningful insights, not raw data.
San Francisco Bay Area office occupiers are entering one of the best negotiating environments since the dotcom crash of 2001. Yet benefiting from this market is less straight forward than in past downturns because of uncertainties around how to plan post-COVID occupancy. Getting your real estate “right” requires a level of pre-planning not typically associated with the acquisition of office space. The first question you should ask is not where but why. As in, why have an office?
This San Francisco office market report is provided compliments of Samantha S. Low and Greg Fogg, Co-Founders of TenantSee. TenantSee is a tenant real estate product combining a team of subject-matter experts with powerful technology to make tenant real estate smarter, faster, and better. Our report is intended to provide you the tenant, with meaningful insights, not raw data.
To our clients and loyal followers…In a departure from our normal practice, we’ve chosen to write a letter to close out what has been a most unusual year. With respect to office space, it’s no stretch to describe 2020 as the most impactful year of the past century. What changed? In a word: everything.
This San Francisco office market report is providedcompliments of TenantSee. TenantSee is a tenant realestate product combining a team of subject-matterexperts with powerful technology to make tenantreal estate smarter, faster and better. Our report isintended to provide you, the tenant, with meaningfulinsights, not raw data.~
The Covid-19 pandemic is not only the most significant public health challenge of our time, it is also massively disrupting the way we live, socialize and work. While corporations navigate a rapidly changing business landscape, they’re also forced to solve for new operational challenges they’ve never seen before. This is a highly complex time. Among the most significant challenges is that of creating optimal workplace solutions that foster employee health and wellness, are sensitive to the differentiated employee needs and maximize employee engagement/productivity.
This San Francisco office market report is providedcompliments of TenantSee. TenantSee is a tenant realestate product combining a team of subject-matterexperts with powerful technology to make tenantreal estate smarter, faster and better. Our report isintended to provide you, the tenant, with meaningfulinsights, not raw data.~
This San Francisco office market report is providedcompliments of TenantSee. TenantSee is a tenant realestate product combining a team of subject-matterexperts with powerful technology to make tenantreal estate smarter, faster and better. Our report isintended to provide you, the tenant, with meaningfulinsights, not raw data.~
Technology has had a growing impact on how corporations think about labor, facilities and cost. In particular, companies have found that they don’t always need to have a physical presence to be present. And where they are physically present, they seek deeper understanding of how to design their facility to maximize employee engagement. In short, the scale and design of the modern workplace is rapidly changing in response to technology.
In my 30-year career in commercial real estate, I’ve seen all kinds of marketing strategies. In my experience, tenants are often unaware of the key qualities in an advisor that reliably predict success, making them susceptible to selecting the wrong advisor. To achieve optimal office leasing outcomes, occupiers need to engage a service provider who possesses the following critical ingredients:
1. Market intelligence.
2. Planning.
3. A full-scope team.
4. Thought leadership/strategy.
5. Experience.
You signed a 10-year lease 7 years ago. Since then, the market value of your space has more than doubled. At this pace, you’re looking at a huge price increase in 3 years. What should you do? Today in the San Francisco Bay Area marketplace, this is the single most common discussion we have with tenants. Since our approach to this question is always the same, we thought it made sense to describe it here today. The question “What should we do?”, is really comprised of 3 questions.
For many companies, the process of finding new office space and executing a lease can be daunting, even with the help and insights of a broker familiar with the market. Traditionally, the brokerage and transaction process has remained largely the same over the years, with tenants relying on the knowledge of others in the industry — brokers, landlords, contractors — to help them make the most informed decision when selecting a new property. For Greg Fogg, one of the founders of TenantSee alongside Samantha Low, this was a fundamental problem for tenants seeking space. Those at TenantSee realized many companies started their search for space with little direction and few established parameters despite the myriad of service lines offered by brokerage firms, making the entire process more time consuming and costly. From these observations TenantSee, a tenant real estate product offering, was born in an effort to create a new brokerage-based service model, allowing tenants to make more informed decisions before they sign a lease.
