Market Outlook QTR4 2021 - Tenant Perspective
This San Francisco office market report is provided compliments of Samantha S. Low and Greg Fogg, co-creators of TenantSee. TenantSee is a tenant real estate product combining a team of subject-matter experts with powerful technology to make tenant real estates smarter, faster, and better. Our report is intended to provide you, the tenant, with meaningful insights, not raw data. To learn more about TenantSee, please visit www.lowfogg.com
TenantSee Weekly: Hub & Spoke: A Suburban Myth
In the early days of the pandemic there was a lot of chatter about so called “hub and spoke” real estate strategies that would cause occupiers to establish a city center hub and branch out to the suburbs with smaller satellite offices…the spokes. In the bay area, this trend has not materialized. The absence of consistent levels of demand that characterized the pre-pandemic office market has left a void for speculation. Much of the speculation comes from parties whom have a vested interest in the outcome. Suburban landlords optimistically viewed the pandemic as an opportunity for heightened demand for their product (and this may still turn out to be the case). But the truth is much of the current discussion around office demand is not informed by actual data (e.g., actions taken by tenants).
TenantSee Weekly: Innovation Is Hard
With the exception of the tech sector (where to innovate is to survive), big companies have a hard time being innovative. Why? Many reasons; but, most notably, the fact that true innovation is the enemy of the status quo. The status quo is a big company’s happy place. Innovation is messy and disruptive. It looks to upset the status quo in search of new, better ways. Most people don’t want change. This is why venture capital and startups exist. They aren’t afraid to “break it”, they’re designed to do so. The bigger the market a startup looks to disrupt, the more valuable it may be.
TenantSee Weekly: The Limited Value of a Handshake
People aren’t really shaking hands any more. Literally. And the figurative handshake has also seen better days, especially in the context of real estate transactions. To be sure, most office lease transactions are too complex to memorialize with a handshake. However, there’s a more practical factor at play that makes trust and commitment difficult. Specifically, until there’s a deal, there’s no deal.
TenantSee Weekly: Lacking a Common Narrative
Markets are shaped by an ever-changing interplay of influential factors; including, supply, demand, human behavior, data and a collective narrative. In times of relative stability, market participants accept a prevailing collective narrative and the markets perform with a high degree of uniformity. Take, for example, the San Francisco office market of 2019. Characterized by strong tenant demand and limited supply, this market was not difficult to understand. The narrative, while beneficial to landlords and harmful to occupiers, was supported by data and participant behavior.
TenantSee Weekly: The Tension Between Quality Tenant Advisory Services and Commissions
he overwhelming practice in all major US Metro markets is for landlords to pay the tenant advisor’s fee. While it’s true the landlord cuts the check, the tenant is actually the payor, as leasing fees are built into the building operating budget and recouped by the landlord through rent in the same way other transaction costs are passed on to the tenant (like landlord-funded tenant improvements, free rent and other concessions). In past issues we’ve written about how this arrangement can create opacity, making it harder for tenants to align advisory fees with specific services. But this unorthodox arrangement can also create unusual negotiating dynamics where certain landlords look to leverage tenant confusion about leasing fees to cause the tenant to sign up for less favorable terms and/or to keep fees otherwise budgeted for the tenant’s advisor.
